The Effect of Remote Learning on the Economy

 by Sean McGarry



  Retrieved from Microsoft Education



    The coronavirus pandemic has heightened the demand for a technological, more efficient education system.  At the beginning of 2020, it was schools that took the initiative to experiment with the concept of social isolation.  The tentative objective was to ensure a sanitary environment amongst the school atmosphere, as students encompass a considerable portion of the United States population.  But, as time progressed, restrictions expanded, and it became apparent that virtual learning was to be the routine for an unspecified amount of time.  With this change in lifestyle also came dramatic ramifications presented to the economy.  As a direct result of mass unemployment, many students and their families could not afford a proper education.  With concrete analysis, it is evident that the lasting effects of mitigated school systems have a direct causation on the diminishing economy.

    A lack of in-person attendance could exacerbate the effect of “summer slide” on children ages 3-18.  This occurs during the months of summer vacation, in which students typically are not required to dedicate time to any form of work, as teachers hope to maximize their vacation periods.  It was initially studied in 1996, when researchers first introduced this cognitive behavior to the public.  Recently, scientists have demonstrated that 25% of all knowledge gained in grades three through five are lost as a consequence for this allotted period of inactivity from school.  It has also been noted that low-income high school students suffer seriously, as patterns show that they naturally fall behind stable-income learners by an average of three months.  Collectively, the addition of summer break to virtual learning magnifies the inadequacy of effective education.  

    Certain fields have been stricken by the issues of COVID-19 more than others.  In an analysis released by S&P Global, the probability of default (PD) was compared between many leading industries.  It can be observed that the financial industry appears to prosper the most.  For instance, prior to the pandemic, the PD for the multi-line insurance industry was 0.34%.  In August 2020, it was recalculated and results exhibited that the PD actually decreased to 0.33%. This rate of decline was extremely similar to other industries such as REITs and other branches of insurance.  Comparatively, the most negatively impacted industries were both agriculture and engineering.  The ultimate jump in PD unfolded in restaurants, which went from 2.17% to 6.36%, in terms of PD risk.  Drilling and auto part occupations also suffered great damage financially.  Although some fields have benefited and others have been negatively affected by the pandemic, the United States is still experiencing a serious economic depression that will warrant a steady recovery.

    All of this information falls on the basis of human capital, which entails the ability of a person to participate in work based off of their competence and past education.  As students in both high school and college prepare to enter the workforce, they must be extremely knowledgeable in their desired field.  Due to the pandemic, the amount of college-educated people fell almost 3%, and to an even greater extent, the dropout high school rate has jumped over 4%.  This goes to show that as sources of education are becoming deficient, it is no longer essential for a fixed amount of people in the country to go to school.  In the end, this translates to a generation that is deprived of the ability to swiftly find jobs and occupations suitable to their proficiency.

    Countries like France and Germany have actually made it of utmost importance to keep schools open as a tradeoff for restaurants and other local businesses having to close.  It can be implied that the motives behind this decision adhere to the idea that many industries require workers to employ skills obtained from school, while restaurants are not generally affected by the decrease in human capital.  Although one source of wealth must be terminated for another to blossom, it is at the discretion of a functioning society in the future.  With schools staying closed, the United States may never see the economy excel as it has before.



Sources


1. Hanushek. E. A. & Woesmann, L. (2020). The Economic Impacts of Learning Losses. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. Retrieved from https://www.oecd.org/education/The-economic-impacts-of-coronavirus-covid-19-learning-losses.pdf

2. Austrew, A. (2019, June 5). How to Prevent Your Kids from Losing What They Learned in School During Summer Vacation. Scholastic. Retrieved from https://www.scholastic.com/parents/books-and-reading/raise-a-reader-blog/summer-slide.html

3. Haydon, D. & Kumar, N. (2020). Industries Most and Least Impacted by COVID-19 from a Probability of Default Perspective – September 2020 Update. S&P Global. https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/blog/industries-most-and-least-impacted-by-covid19-from-a-probability-of-default-perspective-september-2020-update

4. Fuchs-Schündeln, et al. (2020). The long-term effects of school closures. Centre for Economic Policy Research. Retrieved from https://voxeu.org/article/long-term-effects-school-closures


5. Could virtual learning actually hurt the U.S. economy? (2020, November 12). J.P. Morgan. https://www.chase.com/personal/investments/learning-and-insights/article/could-virtual-learning-hurt-us-economy